Graphs - April 2010
This page shows various climate results if the proposals in the public domain in April 2010 were fully implemented. Details of our simulation's assumptions and methods are available in the links to the right.
We collected emissions reductions proposals in the public domain April 2010 (called "Confirmed" and "Potential" proposals in the graph and documented here) – and found that even if these were fully implemented, they would be far from sufficient to meet the goal of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels at or below 350 ppm, reaching instead between 585-770 ppm CO2 and 715-1015 CO2e by 2100. These proposals would not be sufficient to limit warming to 2°C over pre-industrial temperatures, creating instead approximately 2.9-3.9°C of temperature increase by 2100.
"Confirmed" proposals reduce the gap between “Business As Usual” (BAU) and the trajectory required to limit global average temperature to 2°C in 2100 by less than 50%.
If the UNFCCC process is to achieve widely accepted climate goals – such as stabilizing CO2 levels between 350-450 ppm and limiting temperature increase to less than 2°C over pre-industrial – then, in the next months, emissions reduction proposals must become significantly more ambitious.
We used C-ROADS to create a third line as well -- the "low emissions path" for reference and comparison.
Note that all these scenarios show the mid-point of a range of possible futures, given uncertainties in the system such as the rate at which plants, soils, and oceans uptake carbon dioxide, and the sensitivity of the climate to increases in greenhouse gases.
To view additional graphs for each of the indicators, click here.