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Climate Momentum Simulation

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sea level rise

Posted by http://mxr350.myopenid.com/ at Jun 08, 2010 01:22 AM
do you mean to use mm in the sea level rise simulation? 800mm is less than 3 feet. i have read that bau/a co2 concentration of >800ppm would lead to sea level rises that would be at least a factor of 10 greater than 800mm.

sea level rise

Posted by Stephanie McCauley at Aug 26, 2010 12:25 PM
Thank you for your comment, and sorry for the delay in answering!

We used the Rahmsdorf equations for sea level rise -- see full reference guide [http://www.climateinteractive.org/[…]/technical-reference]. And we chose the most conservative estimates for sea level rise, with the goal of emphasizing not the extent of the rise, but the dynamics. We wanted to show the delays and momentum in the system. One important note: we show sea level rise of 800mm in 2100, but sea level is continuing to rise at that point, and will do so for many years. So, it could be that the 10x estimate you saw was for a time post 2100.

sea level rise

Posted by Stephanie McCauley at Apr 01, 2011 12:00 PM
Sea level rise estimates an order of magnitude higher than .8m are probably equilibrium estimates for the far future, whereas the sim is showing the transient rise to 2100. Unfortunately (a) the .8m estimate could be substantially more this century, due to uncertainties about climate sensitivity and ice dynamics, and (b) SLR won’t stop at the end of the century.